Victory in Utah for Mitt Romney - A Landslide Win

Five Reasons Jeff Fuller Predicts a Mitt Romney Victory in Utah:

1) Romney lived in Utah recently and saved the state's reputation through turning around the Olympics. Utah voters both saw his amazing leadership/turnaround skills and want to reward him for his service to their state. The key from the exit polls will be to see how non-Mormon Republicans break for Romney . . . I'm predicting that it won't be too different from the LDS percentage . . . and THAT WILL BE THE POINT TO DRIVE HOME.

2) Let's face it, Mormons will vote overwhelmingly for Romney in Utah. We already saw something similar in Nevada where 94% of the LDS GOP caucus goers were for Romney. However, I also detailed in a previous blog that, counting the LDS Democrat caucus goers in NV, the real percentage of LDS choosing Romney was actually 73%. That's still a strong base of support, and an email from my friend helped me understand why this may be:

Maybe this is a false distinction that exists only in my own brain, but I think there's a difference between Huckabee's evangelical support and Mitt's mormon support. I think some evangelicals vote Huckabee not because of his policy or conservative nature but because of his religion. I think there is high support for Romney among Mormons because Mormons are less likely to be suspicious of Romney's mormonism and so are able to back him because of his policies and conservative nature.

I'm sure there are exceptions to that for both Huckabee and Romney supporters. But, basically I sense that religion has prevented objective comparison on the issues, and when such comparison happens, Romney benefits. I thought this was a great point and can be used pre-voting to explain part of why Romney will win Utah so convincingly . . . THAT UTAH REPUBLICANS ARE SO PAST/BEYOND ANY CONCERN WITH VOTING FOR A MORMON THAT THEY ARE ABLE TO VIEW ROMNEY AMONG THE CANDIDATES WITHOUT A FEAR/BIAS (Conscious or not) OF HAVING A MORMON NOMINEE/PRESIDENT. WITHOUT THIS, THEY OBVIOUSLY REALIZE THAT ROMNEY IS, FAR AND AWAY THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT!

3) Utah's full of "very conservative" Republicans. Romney has won this demographic by a very wide margin in just about every state so far . . . they'll break in a major way again for Romney in Utah.

4) There will be PLENTY of Mormons voting for Obama or Hillary. We'll have to wait for the exit polling, but this factor will help lessen the "block Mormon vote" criticisms that will be sure to be the main headline out of Utah's primary.

5) If being LDS is enough to clean up in Utah, please show me the poll that ever had Orrin Hatch (a long-time and well-loved UTAH Senator who is LDS) leading in the 2000 GOP race for President in either Utah or Idaho (yeah, I know he dropped out after Iowa, but Romney was leading Utah polls big early and way before Iowa). I think this factor combines nicely with point #2 above . . . that it's not that they're voting for Romney because he's Mormon, it's that they're not freaked out that he IS a Mormon and can view him without that potential bias . . . that Mormons weren't that impressed with Hatch as POTUS material and rejected him on those grounds.